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Wecanbeginourdiscussionof“populationasglobalissue”withwhatmostpersonsmeanwhentheydiscuss“thepopulationproblem”:toomanypeopleonearthandatoorapidincreaseinthenumberaddedeachyear.Thefactsarenotindispute,Itwasquiterighttoemploytheanalogythatlikeneddemographicgrowthto“along,thinpowderfusethatburnssteadilyandhaltinglyuntilitfinallyreachesthechargeandexplodes.”
Tounderstandthecurrentsituation,whichischaracterizedbyrapidincreasesinpopulation,itisnecessarytounderstandthehistoryofpopulationtrends.Rapidgrowthisacomparativelyrecentphenomenon.Lookingbackatthe8,000yearsofdemographichistory,wefindthatpopulationshavebeenvirtuallystableorgrowingveryslightlyformostofhumanhistory.Formostofourancestors,lifewashard,oftennasty,andveryshort.Therewashighfertilityinmostplaces,butthiswasusuallybalancedbyhighmortality.Formostofhumanhistory,itwasseldomthecasethatoneintenpersonswouldlivepastforty,whileinfancyandchildhoodwereespeciallyriskyperiods.Often,societieswereincleardangerofextinctionbecausedeathratescouldexceedtheirbirthrates.Thus,thepopulationproblemthroughoutmostofhistorywashowtopreventextinctionofthehumanrace.
Thispatternisimportanttonotice.Notonlydoesitputthecurrentproblemsofdemographicgrowthintoahistoricalperspective,butitsuggeststhatthecauseofrapidincreaseinpopulationinrecentyearsisnotasuddenenthusiasmformorechildren,butanimprovementintheconditionsthattraditionallyhavecausedhighmortality.
Demographichistorycanbedividedintotwomajorperiods:atimeoflong,slowgrowthwhichextendedfromabout8,000BC.tillapproximatelyAD.1650.Inthefirstperiodofsome9600years,thepopulationincreasedfromsome8millionto500millionin1650.Between1650andthepresent,thepopulationhasincreasedfrom500milliontomorethan4billion.Anditisestimatedthatbytheyear2000therewillbe6.2billionpeoplethroughouttheworld.Onewaytoappreciatethisdramaticdifferenceinsuchabstractnumbersistoreducethetimeframetosomethingthatismoremanageable.Between8000BCand1650,anaverageofonly50,000personswasbeingaddedannuallytotheworld’spopulationeachyear.Atpresent,thisnumberisaddedeverysixhours.Theincreaseisabout80,000,000personsannually.
1.Whichofthefollowingdemographicgrowthpatternismostsuitableforthelongthinpowderfuseanalogy?
A.Avirtuallystableorslightlydecreasingperiodandthenasuddenexplosionofpopulation.
B.Aslowgrowthforalongtimeandthenaperiodofrapid,dramaticincrease.
C.Toomanypeopleonearthandafewrapidincreaseinthenumberaddedeachyear.
D.Alongperiodwhendeathratesexceedsbirthratesandthenashortperiodwithhigherfertilityandlowermortality.
2.Duringthefirstperiodofdemographichistory,societieswereoftenindangerofextinctionbecause___.
A.onlyoneintenpersonscouldlivepast40.
B.therewashighermortalitythanfertilityinmostplaces.
C.itwastoodangeroustohavebabiesduetothepoorconditions.
D.ourancestorshadlittleenthusiasmformorechildren.
3.Whichstatementistrueaboutpopulationincrease?
A.Theremightbeanincreaseof2.2billionpersonsfromnowtotheyear2000.
B.About50,000babiesareborneverysixhoursatpresent.
C.Between8000BCandthepresent,thepopulationincreaseisabout80,000,000personseachyear.
D.Thepopulationincreasedfasterbetween8000BCand1650thanbetween1650andthepresent.
4.Theauthorofthepassageintendsto___.
A.warnpeopleagainstthepopulationexplosioninthenearfuture.
B.comparethedemographicgrowthpatterninthepastwiththatafter1650.
C.findoutthecauseforrapidincreaseinpopulationinrecentyears.
D.presentusaclearandcompletepictureofthedemographicgrowth.
5.Theword“demographic”inthefirstparagraphmeans___.
A.statisticsofhuman.
B.surroundingsstudy.
C.accumulationofhuman.
D.developmentofhuman.
Inthelast12yearstotalemploymentintheUnitedStatesgrewfasterthanatanytimeinthepeacetimehistoryofanycountry–from82to110millionbetween1973and1985–thatis,byafullonethird.Theentiregrowth,however,wasinmanufacturing,andespeciallyinno–blue-collarjobs…
Thistrendisthesameinalldevelopedcountries,andis,indeed,evenmorepronouncedinJapan.Itisthereforehighlyprobablethatin25yearsdevelopedcountriessuchastheUnitedStatesandJapanwillemploynolargeraproportionofthelaborforceInmanufacturingthandevelopedcountriesnowemployinfarming–atmost,10percent.TodaytheUnitedStatesemploysaround18millionpeopleinblue-collarjobsinmanufacturingindustries.By2010,thenumberislikelytobenomorethan12million.Insomemajorindustriesthedropwillbeevensharper.Itisquiteunrealistic,forinstance,toexpectthattheAmericanautomobileindustrywillemploymorethanone–thirdofitspresentblue-collarforce25yearshence,eventhoughproductionmightbe50percenthigher.
Ifacompany,anindustryoracountrydoesnotinthenextquartercenturysharplyincreasemanufacturingproductionandatthesametimesharplyreducetheblue-collarworkforce,itcannothopetoremaincompetitive–oreventoremain“developed.”Theattempttopreservesuchblue–collarjobsisactuallyaprescriptionforunemployment…
ThisisnotaconclusionthatAmericanpoliticians,laborleadersorindeedthegeneralpubliccaneasilyunderstandoraccept.WhatconfusestheissueevenmoreitthattheUnitedStatesisexperiencingseveralseparateanddifferentshiftsinthemanufacturingeconomy.Oneistheaccelerationofthesubstitutionofknowledgeandcapitalformanuallabor.Wherewespokeofmechanizationafewdecadesago,wenowspeakof“robotization“or“automation.”Thisisactuallymoreachangeinterminologythanachangeinreality.WhenHenryFordintroducedtheassemblylinein1909,hecutthenumberofman–hoursrequiredtoproduceamotorcarbysome80percentintwoorthreeyears–farmorethananyoneexpectstoresultfromeventhemostcompleterobotization.Butthereisnodoubtthatwearefacinganew,sharpaccelerationinthereplacementofmanualworkersbymachines–thatis,bytheproductsofknowledge.
1.Accordingtotheauthor,theshrinkageinthemanufacturinglaborforcedemonstrates______.
A.thedegreetowhichacountry’sproductionisrobotized
B.areductioninacountry’smanufacturingindustries
C.aworseningrelationshipbetweenlaborandmanagement
D.thedifferencebetweenadevelopedcountryandadevelopingcountry
2.Accordingtotheauthor,incoming25years,adevelopedcountryorindustry,inordertremaincompetitive,oughtto______.
A.reducethepercentageoftheblue-collarworkforce
B.preserveblue–collarjobsforinternationalcompetition
C.acceleratemotor–canmanufacturinginHenryFord’sstyle
D.solvetheproblemofunemployment
3.Americanpoliticiansandlaborleaderstendtodislike_____.
A.confusioninmanufacturingeconomy
B.anincreaseinblue–collarworkforce
C.internalcompetitioninmanufacturingproduction
D.adropintheblue–collarjobopportunities
4.Theword“prescription”in“aprescriptionforunemployment”maybetheequivalentto______
A.somethingrecommendedasmedicaltreatment
B.awaysuggestedtoovercomesomedifficulty
C.somemeasurestakeninadvance
D.adevicetodire
5.Thispassagemayhavebeenexceptedfrom________
A.amagazineaboutcapitalinvestment
B.anarticleonautomation
C.amotor-carmagazine
D.anarticleonglobaleconomy
